The Prediction Markets

Northern Nalšia by-election winner?

Closes
Nov 8, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gintautas Kindurys 39.6%

Next is Vladislav Kondratovič at 16.2%. The venues differ most on Giedrius Dainys (Polymarket 11.3%, Kalshi 6%), a 5.3-point gap.

Gintautas Kindurys 39.6%Vladislav Kondratovič 16.2%Giedrius Dainys 9.2%Dalia Štraupaitė 7.6%Antanas Šakalis 6.7%6 others 20.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gintautas Kindurys
39.6%
Polymarket 42.5%(39.5% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 44%(39.8% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gintautas Kindurys
Last price
42.5%
Fair, margin removed
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gintautas Kindurys
Last price
44%
Fair, margin removed
39.8%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Vladislav Kondratovič
16.2%
Polymarket 17%(15.8% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 19%(17.2% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladislav Kondratovič
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vladislavas Kondratovičius
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.2%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Giedrius Dainys
9.2%
Polymarket 11.3%(10.5% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giedrius Dainys
Last price
11.3%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.2¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$704 (7.04x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Giedrius Dainys
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Dalia Štraupaitė
7.6%
Polymarket 8%(7.4% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 9%(8.1% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dalia Štraupaitė
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
7.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dalia Štraupaitė
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.1%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$214
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Antanas Šakalis
6.7%
Polymarket 7.3%(6.8% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 7%(6.3% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antanas Šakalis
Last price
7.3%
Fair, margin removed
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Antanas Šakalys
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Mėta Palauskaitė
6.2%
Polymarket 7.4%(6.9% fair)polled, 47s agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mėta Palauskaitė
Last price
7.4%
Fair, margin removed
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$496
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mėta Paulauskė
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Maksimas Paukštė
3.4%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maksimas Paukštė
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maksimas Paukštė
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Nikolajus Lebedevičius
3.2%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$729
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Ignotas Adomavičius
2.8%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 47s agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ignotas Adomavičius
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ignotas Adomavičius
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 2.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

Viktor Voronin
2.7%
Polymarket 3%polled, 47s agoKalshi 3%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Viktor Voronin
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Viktoras Voroninas
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.8¢.

Andrej Šildiajėv
2.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 47s agoKalshi 4%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrej Šildiajėv
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrejus Šildiajevas
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 6 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 6 min old: Ignotas Adomavičius asks 2.2¢ on Polymarket and bids 4¢ on Kalshi (180 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by May 31, 2027; Kalshi has no such fallback in the shown text (venue end date Nov 2027).
  • Kalshi can resolve early on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket primarily uses consensus of credible reporting, with official VRK results only in case of ambiguity, while Kalshi's winner is the candidate the CEC declares elected.
  • Candidate names are transliterated differently across venues (e.g., Andrejus Šildiajevas vs Andrej Šildiajėv, Antanas Šakalys vs Šakalis, Mėta Paulauskė vs Palauskaitė, Viktoras Voroninas vs Viktor Voronin, Vladislavas Kondratovičius vs Vladislav Kondratovič); assumed to be the same people.
  • Polymarket has an extra "Other" resolution path for outcomes while Kalshi lists only named candidates; Kalshi's displayed market-level rule text mentions only one candidate.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: vrk.lt
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Electoral Commission of Lithuania
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by May 31, 2027; Kalshi has no such fallback in the shown text (venue end date Nov 2027).
  • Kalshi can resolve early on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket primarily uses consensus of credible reporting, with official VRK results only in case of ambiguity, while Kalshi's winner is the candidate the CEC declares elected.
  • Candidate names are transliterated differently across venues (e.g., Andrejus Šildiajevas vs Andrej Šildiajėv, Antanas Šakalys vs Šakalis, Mėta Paulauskė vs Palauskaitė, Viktoras Voroninas vs Viktor Voronin, Vladislavas Kondratovičius vs Vladislav Kondratovič); assumed to be the same people.
  • Polymarket has an extra "Other" resolution path for outcomes while Kalshi lists only named candidates; Kalshi's displayed market-level rule text mentions only one candidate.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gintautas Kindurys
  • Vladislav Kondratovič
  • Giedrius Dainys

Live prices for Gintautas Kindurys

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Northern Nalšia by-election winner?". Gintautas Kindurys leads at 39.6%. Next is Vladislav Kondratovič at 16.2%. $14K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Northern Nalšia by-election winner? Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Markets