The Prediction Markets

Northern Nalšia by-election winner?

Closes
Nov 8, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Gintautas Kindurys 36.4%

Next is Vladislav Kondratovič at 19.4%. The venues differ most on Ignotas Adomavičius (Polymarket 2.1%, Kalshi 7%), a 4.9-point gap.

Gintautas Kindurys 36.4%Vladislav Kondratovič 19.4%Dalia Štraupaitė 9.1%Giedrius Dainys 8.3%Antanas Šakalis 6.4%6 others 20.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gintautas Kindurys
36.4%
Polymarket 39.5%(35.4% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 44%(39.5% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gintautas Kindurys
Last price
39.5%
Fair, margin removed
35.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gintautas Kindurys
Last price
44%
Fair, margin removed
39.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Vladislav Kondratovič
19.4%
Polymarket 22.5%(20.1% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 19%(17% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladislav Kondratovič
Last price
22.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vladislavas Kondratovičius
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dalia Štraupaitė
9.1%
Polymarket 10.5%(9.4% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 9%(8.1% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dalia Štraupaitė
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$875
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dalia Štraupaitė
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$214
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Giedrius Dainys
8.3%
Polymarket 10.4%(9.3% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giedrius Dainys
Last price
10.4%
Fair, margin removed
9.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$612
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Giedrius Dainys
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Antanas Šakalis
6.4%
Polymarket 7.2%(6.4% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 7%(6.3% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antanas Šakalis
Last price
7.2%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Antanas Šakalys
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mėta Palauskaitė
5.9%
Polymarket 7.3%(6.5% fair)polled, 5 h agoKalshi 6%(5.4% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mėta Palauskaitė
Last price
7.3%
Fair, margin removed
6.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mėta Paulauskė
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Maksimas Paukštė
3.3%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maksimas Paukštė
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maksimas Paukštė
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Nikolajus Lebedevičius
3.3%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$729
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ignotas Adomavičius
3%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 7%(6.3% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ignotas Adomavičius
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ignotas Adomavičius
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Viktor Voronin
2.6%
Polymarket 3%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Viktor Voronin
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Viktoras Voroninas
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Andrej Šildiajėv
2.3%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrej Šildiajėv
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrejus Šildiajevas
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by May 31, 2027; Kalshi has no such fallback in the shown text (venue end date Nov 2027).
  • Kalshi can resolve early on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket primarily uses consensus of credible reporting, with official VRK results only in case of ambiguity, while Kalshi's winner is the candidate the CEC declares elected.
  • Candidate names are transliterated differently across venues (e.g., Andrejus Šildiajevas vs Andrej Šildiajėv, Antanas Šakalys vs Šakalis, Mėta Paulauskė vs Palauskaitė, Viktoras Voroninas vs Viktor Voronin, Vladislavas Kondratovičius vs Vladislav Kondratovič); assumed to be the same people.
  • Polymarket has an extra "Other" resolution path for outcomes while Kalshi lists only named candidates; Kalshi's displayed market-level rule text mentions only one candidate.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: vrk.lt
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Electoral Commission of Lithuania
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by May 31, 2027; Kalshi has no such fallback in the shown text (venue end date Nov 2027).
  • Kalshi can resolve early on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket primarily uses consensus of credible reporting, with official VRK results only in case of ambiguity, while Kalshi's winner is the candidate the CEC declares elected.
  • Candidate names are transliterated differently across venues (e.g., Andrejus Šildiajevas vs Andrej Šildiajėv, Antanas Šakalys vs Šakalis, Mėta Paulauskė vs Palauskaitė, Viktoras Voroninas vs Viktor Voronin, Vladislavas Kondratovičius vs Vladislav Kondratovič); assumed to be the same people.
  • Polymarket has an extra "Other" resolution path for outcomes while Kalshi lists only named candidates; Kalshi's displayed market-level rule text mentions only one candidate.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gintautas Kindurys
  • Vladislav Kondratovič
  • Dalia Štraupaitė

Live prices for Gintautas Kindurys

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Northern Nalšia by-election winner?". Gintautas Kindurys leads at 36.4%. Next is Vladislav Kondratovič at 19.4%. $13K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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