The Prediction Markets

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

Closes
Nov 8, 2026, in 17 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Gintautas Kindurys 42%

Next is Vladislav Kondratovič at 14.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Gintautas Kindurys 42%Vladislav Kondratovič 14.3%Antanas Šakalis 9.4%Ignotas Adomavičius 9.2%Dalia Štraupaitė 6.7%6 others 18.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Gintautas Kindurys
42%
Polymarket 50%(42% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gintautas Kindurys
Last price
50%
Fair, margin removed
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladislav Kondratovič
14.3%
Polymarket 17%(14.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladislav Kondratovič
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$807
Trade this on Polymarket
Antanas Šakalis
9.4%
Polymarket 11.2%(9.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $467 (4.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antanas Šakalis
Last price
11.2%
Fair, margin removed
9.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$467 (4.67x)
Volume
$731
Trade this on Polymarket
Ignotas Adomavičius
9.2%
Polymarket 11%(9.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ignotas Adomavičius
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dalia Štraupaitė
6.7%
Polymarket 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dalia Štraupaitė
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$755
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
4.5%
Polymarket 5.3%(4.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolajus Lebedevičius
Last price
5.3%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Giedrius Dainys
3.8%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giedrius Dainys
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$221
Trade this on Polymarket
Mėta Palauskaitė
3.7%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mėta Palauskaitė
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
Maksimas Paukštė
3.5%
Polymarket 4.2%(3.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maksimas Paukštė
Last price
4.2%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Polymarket
Viktor Voronin
1.9%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Viktor Voronin
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrej Šildiajėv
1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrej Šildiajėv
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: vrk.lt

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gintautas Kindurys
  • Vladislav Kondratovič
  • Antanas Šakalis

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner". Gintautas Kindurys leads at 42%. Next is Vladislav Kondratovič at 14.3%. $8K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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