The Prediction Markets

Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q1 2027

Closes
Aug 31, 2027, in 10 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 990 thousand 75%

Next is Above 1000 thousand at 67.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 990 thousand
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 990 thousand
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1000 thousand
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1000 thousand
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1020 thousand
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1020 thousand
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1010 thousand
60.5%
Kalshi 60.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1010 thousand
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1030 thousand
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1030 thousand
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1040 thousand
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1040 thousand
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1050 thousand
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1050 thousand
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1060 thousand
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1060 thousand
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1070 thousand
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1070 thousand
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1080 thousand
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1080 thousand
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 1090 thousand
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1090 thousand
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1100 thousand
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1100 thousand
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$198
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1330 thousand
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1330 thousand
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$198
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 990 thousand
  • Above 1000 thousand
  • Above 1020 thousand

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Norwegian Cruise Line passengers carried in Q1 2027". Above 990 thousand leads at 75%. Next is Above 1000 thousand at 67.5%. $5K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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