The Prediction Markets

Nuevo León Governor Election Winner

Closes
Jun 7, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$76K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Adrian de la Garza Santos 20.8%

Next is Mariana Rodriguez Cantu at 18%. The venues differ most on Carlos de la Fuente Flores (Polymarket 23.7%, Kalshi 3%), a 21-point gap.

Adrian de la Garza Santos 20.8%Mariana Rodriguez Cantu 18%Clara Luz Flores Carrales 13.9%Carlos de la Fuente Flores 10.9%Jesus Alberto Elizondo 5.7%20 others 30.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Adrian de la Garza SantosArb
20.8%
Polymarket 30.5%(20.2% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 26%(21.9% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adrián de la Garza Santos
Last price
30.5%
Fair, margin removed
20.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adrián de la Garza Santos
Last price
26%
Fair, margin removed
21.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$359
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 26¢ and selling on Polymarket at 29¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Mariana Rodriguez CantuArb
18%
Polymarket 25.4%(16.8% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 25%(21% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana Rodríguez Cantú
Last price
25.4%
Fair, margin removed
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.4¢
Sell Yes
25.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$394 (3.94x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana Rodríguez Cantú
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 25.3¢ nets 30 bps before fees.

Clara Luz Flores Carrales
13.9%
Polymarket 20.5%(13.6% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 17%(14.3% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clara Luz Flores Carrales
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clara Luz Flores Carrales
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Carlos de la Fuente Flores
10.9%
Polymarket 23.7%(15.7% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos de la Fuente Flores
Last price
23.7%
Fair, margin removed
15.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos de la Fuente Flores
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Jesus Alberto Elizondo
5.7%
Polymarket 11%(7.3% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesús Alberto Elizondo
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$459 (4.59x)
Volume
$431
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesús Alberto Elizondo
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
5.6%
Polymarket 5.8%(3.8% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 13%(10.9% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 10.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $935 (9.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
Last price
5.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$935 (9.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10.7¢.

Alma Rosa Marroquin Escamilla
4.1%
Polymarket 9%(5.9% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$575 (5.75x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Felix Arratia Cruz
3.1%
Polymarket 2.5%(1.6% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Félix Arratia Cruz
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Félix Arratia Cruz
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo
2.6%
Polymarket 4.1%(2.7% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

César Garza Arredondo
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
César Garza Arredondo
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Waldo Fernandez Gonzalez
1.8%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Waldo Fernández González
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Waldo Fernández González
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Andres Mijes Llovera
1.1%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 29s agoKalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrés Mijes Llovera
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrés Mijes Llovera
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$675
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Felipe de Jesus Cantu Rodriguez
1.1%
Polymarket 2%(1.3% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Martha Herrera Gonzalez
1.1%
Polymarket 1.9%(1.2% fair)polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martha Herrera González
Last price
1.9%
Fair, margin removed
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$726
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martha Herrera González
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Raul Lozano Caballero
1.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 29s agoKalshi 3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raúl Lozano Caballero
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$496
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raúl Lozano Caballero
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

David de la Peña Marroquín
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David de la Peña Marroquín
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernando Margáin Berlanga
0.8%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Margáin Berlanga
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Arturo Salinas Garza
0.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arturo Salinas Garza
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$856
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arturo Salinas Garza
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Miguel Flores Serna
0.7%
Polymarket 1%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miguel Flores Serna
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miguel Flores Serna
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Judith Diaz Delgado
0.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Judith Díaz Delgado
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$934
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Judith Díaz Delgado
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Hector Garcia Garcia
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Héctor García García
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Héctor García García
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Annia Gomez Cardenas
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Annia Gómez Cárdenas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Annia Gómez Cárdenas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Daniel Carrillo Martinez
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Carrillo Martínez
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Carrillo Martínez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Adrian de la Garza Santos on Kalshi at 26¢, sell on Polymarket at 29¢ (300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jun 7, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 6, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Instituto Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Nuevo León (IEEPCNL), Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE)
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Jun 7, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 6, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Adrian de la Garza Santos
  • Mariana Rodriguez Cantu
  • Clara Luz Flores Carrales

Live prices for Adrian de la Garza Santos

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nuevo León Governor Election Winner". Adrian de la Garza Santos leads at 20.8%. Next is Mariana Rodriguez Cantu at 18%. $76K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nuevo León on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nuevo León and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nuevo León and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets