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What the markets expect
November 30, 2026 20.5%
Next is Michael Malchieli at 11%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
November 30, 202620.5%20.5%11¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)November 30, 202620.5%Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
November 30, 2026
20.5%
20.5%
11¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
November 30, 2026
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- November 30, 2026
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Michael Malchieli11%Not listed11%8¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 44s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Michael Malchieli11%Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Michael Malchieli
11%
Not listed
11%
8¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Michael Malchieli
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael Malchieli
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $3K
October 31, 20269.3%9.3%8.1¢ bid, 10.5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed10.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $952 (9.52x)October 31, 20269.3%Polymarket 9.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
October 31, 2026
9.3%
9.3%
8.1¢ bid, 10.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
10.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $952 (9.52x)
October 31, 2026
9.3%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- October 31, 2026
- Last price
- 9.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $952 (9.52x)
- Volume
- $5K
Yoav Ben-Tzur7%Not listed7%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 44s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Yoav Ben-Tzur7%Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Yoav Ben-Tzur
7%
Not listed
7%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Yoav Ben-Tzur
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yoav Ben-Tzur
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $718
Ofir Katz5%Not listed5%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 44s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Ofir Katz5%Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ofir Katz
5%
Not listed
5%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Ofir Katz
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ofir Katz
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $500
October 25, 20264.4%4.4%2¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)October 25, 20264.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
October 25, 2026
4.4%
4.4%
2¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
October 25, 2026
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- October 25, 2026
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $572
Yitzhak GoldknopfKalshi: “Yair Golan”4%Not listed4%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 44s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Yitzhak Goldknopf4%Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Yitzhak Goldknopf
Kalshi: “Yair Golan”
4%
Not listed
4%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Yitzhak Goldknopf
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yair Golan
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $3
Orit Farkash-Hacohen3%Not listed3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 44s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Orit Farkash-Hacohen3%Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
3%
Not listed
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Orit Farkash-Hacohen
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $26
Yoram Cohen3%Not listed3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 44s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Yoram Cohen3%Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Yoram Cohen
3%
Not listed
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Yoram Cohen
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yoram Cohen
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Keren Terner Eyal2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 44s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Keren Terner Eyal2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Keren Terner Eyal
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Keren Terner Eyal
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keren Terner Eyal
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Amir Ohana2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Amir Ohana2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Amir Ohana
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Amir Ohana
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Amir Ohana
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $26
Aryeh Deri2%Not listed2%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 44s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Aryeh Deri2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Aryeh Deri
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Aryeh Deri
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aryeh Deri
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Chili Tropper2%Not listed2%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 44s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Chili Tropper2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Chili Tropper
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Chili Tropper
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chili Tropper
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $26
David Amsalem2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)David Amsalem2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
David Amsalem
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
David Amsalem
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- David Amsalem
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Eli Cohen2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Eli Cohen2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Eli Cohen
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Eli Cohen
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eli Cohen
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Gideon Sa'ar2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Gideon Sa'ar2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Gideon Sa'ar
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Gideon Sa'ar
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gideon Sa'ar
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $26
Haim Biton2%Not listed2%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 44s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Haim Biton2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Haim Biton
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Haim Biton
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Haim Biton
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $26
Israel Katz2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Israel Katz2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Israel Katz
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Israel Katz
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Israel Katz
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Miki Zohar2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Miki Zohar2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Miki Zohar
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Miki Zohar
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miki Zohar
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $26
Miri Regev2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Miri Regev2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Miri Regev
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Miri Regev
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Miri Regev
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Oded Forer2%Not listed2%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 44s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Oded Forer2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Oded Forer
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Oded Forer
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oded Forer
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $26
Yariv Levin2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Yariv Levin2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Yariv Levin
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Yariv Levin
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yariv Levin
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Yinon Azulay2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 44s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Yinon Azulay2%Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Yinon Azulay
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Yinon Azulay
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yinon Azulay
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $338
Avigdor Lieberman1%Not listed1%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 44s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Avigdor Lieberman1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Avigdor Lieberman
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Avigdor Lieberman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Avigdor Lieberman
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Ayelet Shaked1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ayelet Shaked1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ayelet Shaked
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ayelet Shaked
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ayelet Shaked
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Gadi Eisenkot1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Gadi Eisenkot1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gadi Eisenkot
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gadi Eisenkot
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gadi Eisenkot
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Gilad Kariv1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Gilad Kariv1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gilad Kariv
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Gilad Kariv
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gilad Kariv
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Meirav Cohen1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Meirav Cohen1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Meirav Cohen
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Meirav Cohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Meirav Cohen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Moshe Gafni1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Moshe Gafni1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Moshe Gafni
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Moshe Gafni
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moshe Gafni
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $8K
Naama Lazimi1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 44s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Naama Lazimi1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Naama Lazimi
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Naama Lazimi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Naama Lazimi
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Naftali Bennett1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Naftali Bennett1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Naftali Bennett
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Naftali Bennett
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Naftali Bennett
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Yitzhak Goldknopf1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 44s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Yitzhak Goldknopf1%Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Yitzhak Goldknopf
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 44s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Yitzhak Goldknopf
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yitzhak Goldknopf
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- November 30, 2026
- Michael Malchieli
- October 31, 2026
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list November 30, 2026 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by...?". November 30, 2026 leads at 20.5%. Next is Michael Malchieli at 11%. $53K has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Laurent Nuñez ceases to be Minister of the Interior of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Laurent Nuñez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Laurent Nuñez offering to resign where the offer is refused, or continuing to run the ministry in a caretaker capacity after a government resigns, will not resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Laurent Nuñez and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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