The Prediction Markets

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$442K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 23, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Micah Lasher
61.1%
Polymarket 62.5%(61.1% fair)polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Micah Lasher
Last price
62.5%
Fair, margin removed
61.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Bores
37.6%
Polymarket 38.5%(37.6% fair)polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Bores
Last price
38.5%
Fair, margin removed
37.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jack Schlossberg
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jack Schlossberg
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Cuomo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Cuomo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad Lander
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Lander
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cameron Kasky
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cameron Kasky
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carolyn Maloney
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carolyn Maloney
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chelsea Clinton
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chelsea Clinton
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cynthia Nixon
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cynthia Nixon
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Erik Bottcher
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erik Bottcher
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gale Brewer
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gale Brewer
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
George Conway
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Conway
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Julie Menin
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julie Menin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keith Powers
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keith Powers
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liam Elkind
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liam Elkind
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lina Khan
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lina Khan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liz Krueger
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liz Krueger
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott Stringer
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3033 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scott Stringer
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Micah Lasher
  • Alex Bores
  • Jack Schlossberg

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner". Micah Lasher last traded at 61.1%. Next is Alex Bores at 37.6%. $442K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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