The Prediction Markets

NYC Mayor # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

20-39 74.3%

Next is 40-59 at 17.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

20-39 74.3%40-59 17.6%60-79 1.4%100-119 1.3%120-139 1.3%6 others 4.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
20-39
74.3%
Polymarket 84.6%(74.3% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
84.6%
Fair, margin removed
74.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
72.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
17.6%
Polymarket 20%(17.6% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
17.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
1.4%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
100-119
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
120-139
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
140-159
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
80-99
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
20
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Polymarket
160-179
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
180-199
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
200+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 20-39
  • 40-59
  • 60-79

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NYC Mayor # posts October 20 - October 27, 2026?". 20-39 leads at 74.3%. Next is 40-59 at 17.6%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between October 20, 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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