The Prediction Markets

NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?

Starts in 16 daysKickoff
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

35-39 41.5%

Next is 30-34 at 26%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

35-39 41.5%30-34 26%40-44 14.2%30 9.6%55+ 3.7%2 others 5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
35-39
41.5%
Polymarket 48%(41.5% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
35-39
Last price
48%
Fair, margin removed
41.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
30-34
26%
Polymarket 30.1%(26% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $259 (2.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
30-34
Last price
30.1%
Fair, margin removed
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38.6¢
Sell Yes
21.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$259 (2.59x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
40-44
14.2%
Polymarket 16.5%(14.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-44
Last price
16.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
30
9.6%
Polymarket 11.1%(9.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $483 (4.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
30
Last price
11.1%
Fair, margin removed
9.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$483 (4.83x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
55+
3.7%
Polymarket 4.3%(3.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
55+
Last price
4.3%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
45-49
3.4%
Polymarket 3.9%(3.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
45-49
Last price
3.9%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
50-54
1.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
50-54
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.nz

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 35-39
  • 30-34
  • 40-44

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?". 35-39 leads at 41.5%. Next is 30-34 at 26%. $26K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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