The Prediction Markets

NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?

Starts in 16 daysKickoff
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

National 0-5% 29.6%

Next is Labour 0-5% at 27.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

National 0-5% 29.6%Labour 0-5% 27.5%National 5-10% 24%Labour 10-15% 6.7%Labour 5-10% 6.2%3 others 6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
National 0-5%
29.6%
Polymarket 35.5%(29.6% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
National 0-5%
Last price
35.5%
Fair, margin removed
29.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour 0-5%
27.5%
Polymarket 33%(27.5% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour 0-5%
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
National 5-10%
24%
Polymarket 28.8%(24% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 41.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $243 (2.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
National 5-10%
Last price
28.8%
Fair, margin removed
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41.2¢
Sell Yes
16.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$243 (2.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour 10-15%
6.7%
Polymarket 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour 10-15%
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour 5-10%
6.2%
Polymarket 7.4%(6.2% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour 5-10%
Last price
7.4%
Fair, margin removed
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Polymarket
National 10%+
3.4%
Polymarket 4.1%(3.4% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
National 10%+
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour 15%+
2.4%
Polymarket 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour 15%+
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Polymarket
Another Party Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Another Party Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.nz

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • National 0-5%
  • Labour 0-5%
  • National 5-10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?". National 0-5% leads at 29.6%. Next is Labour 0-5% at 27.5%. $24K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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