The Prediction Markets

Oakville, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Rob Burton 42.5%

Next is Arvind Choudhary at 22.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Rob Burton 42.5%Arvind Choudhary 22.5%Julia Hanna 16%Jeff Knoll 15.8%Sean O'Meara 3.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Rob Burton
42.5%
Polymarket 50.5%(42.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rob Burton
Last price
50.5%
Fair, margin removed
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arvind Choudhary
22.5%
Polymarket 26.8%(22.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 51.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $193 (1.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arvind Choudhary
Last price
26.8%
Fair, margin removed
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$193 (1.93x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket
Julia Hanna
16%
Polymarket 19%(16% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Hanna
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$776
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeff Knoll
15.8%
Polymarket 18.8%(15.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeff Knoll
Last price
18.8%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.6¢
Sell Yes
16.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$485 (4.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sean O'Meara
3.2%
Polymarket 3.9%(3.2% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sean O'Meara
Last price
3.9%
Fair, margin removed
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rob Burton
  • Arvind Choudhary
  • Julia Hanna

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oakville, ON Mayoral Election Winner". Rob Burton leads at 42.5%. Next is Arvind Choudhary at 22.5%. $11K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

The 2026 Oakville, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Oakville, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Oakville, Ontario.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets