The Prediction Markets

October Inflation UK - Annual

Closes
Nov 18, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 4.00% 99%

Next is Above 3.90% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 4.00%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.90%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.10%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.20%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.20%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.30%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.30%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.40%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.40%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.60%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.60%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$763
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.70%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.7-3.9%
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7-3.9%
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 4.80%
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.80%
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0-4.2%
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0-4.2%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4-3.6%
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4-3.6%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0%
19.9%
Polymarket 19.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $272 (2.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
19.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36.8¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$272 (2.72x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Polymarket
4.3%+
19.4%
Polymarket 19.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $271 (2.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3%+
Last price
19.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36.9¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$271 (2.71x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.90%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.90%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.1-3.3%
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1-3.3%
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ons.gov.uk
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IGBE, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.00%
  • Above 3.90%
  • Above 4.10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 4.00% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "October Inflation UK - Annual". Above 4.00% leads at 99%. Next is Above 3.90% at 98%. $16K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending October 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for October 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on November 18, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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