The Prediction Markets

October Inflation US - Annual

Closes
Nov 11, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.90% 99%

Next is Above 4.00% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.90%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.10%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.20%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.20%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.30%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.30%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.40%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.40%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.7%
86.5%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7%
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.60%
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.60%
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.70%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Above 4.80%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.80%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.90%
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.90%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
3.8%
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8%
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.9%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.0%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.1%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.3%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$833
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$676
Trade this on Polymarket
3.3%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.3%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Polymarket
3.6%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.6%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$723
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IGBE, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.90%
  • Above 4.00%
  • Above 4.10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.90% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "October Inflation US - Annual". Above 3.90% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.00% at 99%. $25K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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