The Prediction Markets

Ohio presidential election winner?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 min ago
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What the markets expect

Republican Party 65.3%

Next is Democratic Party at 34.7%. The venues differ most on Republican Party (Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64%), a 1.5-point gap.

Republican Party 65.3%Democratic Party 34.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republican Party
65.3%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 64%(64.6% fair)polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Party
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Republican party
Last price
64%
Fair, margin removed
64.6%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 65¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 67¢.

Democratic Party
34.7%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democratic Party
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic party
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 33¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 6 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi resolves on most electoral votes in Ohio; Polymarket resolves on most statewide popular votes, regardless of electoral vote distribution. Ohio awards all electors to the statewide winner, so they only differ in a faithless/unusual allocation scenario.
  • Kalshi names media consensus for accelerated determination without naming sources; Polymarket specifies AP, Fox News and NBC all calling, with fallback to certified results. Sources are not identical but would rarely disagree.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results cannot be determined by Dec 31, 2029; Kalshi has no stated fallback. This is far past the scheduled election.
  • Polymarket resolves by nominee party (or named independent); Kalshi says the party wins. Independent winner on Polymarket would give neither party outcome, while Kalshi's treatment is unspecified.
  • Kalshi's end date is 2029-11-07, Polymarket's is 2028-11-08; both are listed venue end dates, and the event is the same election, so settlement timing differs in listing only.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ohio Secretary of State, United States Congress, Associated Press
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi resolves on most electoral votes in Ohio; Polymarket resolves on most statewide popular votes, regardless of electoral vote distribution. Ohio awards all electors to the statewide winner, so they only differ in a faithless/unusual allocation scenario.
  • Kalshi names media consensus for accelerated determination without naming sources; Polymarket specifies AP, Fox News and NBC all calling, with fallback to certified results. Sources are not identical but would rarely disagree.
  • Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if results cannot be determined by Dec 31, 2029; Kalshi has no stated fallback. This is far past the scheduled election.
  • Polymarket resolves by nominee party (or named independent); Kalshi says the party wins. Independent winner on Polymarket would give neither party outcome, while Kalshi's treatment is unspecified.
  • Kalshi's end date is 2029-11-07, Polymarket's is 2028-11-08; both are listed venue end dates, and the event is the same election, so settlement timing differs in listing only.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republican Party
  • Democratic Party

Live prices for Republican Party

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio presidential election winner?". Republican Party leads at 65.3%. Next is Democratic Party at 34.7%. $13K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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