The Prediction Markets

Ohio Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.70M 94%

Next is Above 3.90M at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.70M
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.70M
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.90M
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90M
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.10M
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10M
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.30M
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.30M
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50M
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50M
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.70M
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.90M
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.90M
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$393
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.10M
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.10M
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1M+
22.9%
Polymarket 22.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $429 (4.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.1M+
Last price
22.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23.3¢
Sell Yes
22.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$429 (4.29x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.8M-4.95M
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.8M-4.95M
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
4.65M-4.8M
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.65M-4.8M
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.30M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.30M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
3.9M
14.1%
Polymarket 14.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9M
Last price
14.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
12.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.50M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.90M
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.90M
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.70M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.70M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
4.95M-5.1M
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.95M-5.1M
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.5M-4.65M
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5M-4.65M
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2M-4.35M
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2M-4.35M
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.9M-4.05M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9M-4.05M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.35M-4.5M
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.35M-4.5M
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.05M-4.2M
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.05M-4.2M
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ohio Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.70M
  • Above 3.90M
  • Above 4.10M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.70M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ohio Senate Election: Turnout". Above 3.70M leads at 94%. Next is Above 3.90M at 85%. $41K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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