The Prediction Markets

OK-01 Republican Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 16, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jackson Lahmeyer
58.5%
Polymarket 59.5%(58.4% fair)polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Lahmeyer
Last price
59.5%
Fair, margin removed
58.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Tedford
37.3%
Polymarket 38%(37.3% fair)polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Tedford
Last price
38%
Fair, margin removed
37.3%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dan Rooney
2.7%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dan Rooney
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nancy Dyson
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nancy Dyson
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim David
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim David
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Courtney Gill
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Courtney Gill
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jackson Stallings
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Stallings
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jed Cochran
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jed Cochran
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kelly B. Walsh
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kelly B. Walsh
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nathan Butterfield
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathan Butterfield
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul Royse
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Royse
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Todd Woods
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Todd Woods
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jackson Lahmeyer
  • Mark Tedford
  • Dan Rooney

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "OK-01 Republican Primary Winner". Jackson Lahmeyer last traded at 58.5%. Next is Mark Tedford at 37.3%. $42K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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