The Prediction Markets

Oklahoma Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 950K 93.5%

Next is Above 1.00M at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 950K
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 950K
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00M
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00M
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.10M
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.10M
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.05M
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.05M
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.15M
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.15M
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.20M
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.20M
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1M-1.2M
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1M-1.2M
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.26M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.26M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.2M-1.3M
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2M-1.3M
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
900K
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $379 (3.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
900K
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26.4¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$379 (3.79x)
Volume
$904
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 1.32M
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.32M
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$522
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.38M
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.38M
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
1.4M+
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4M+
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1M-1.1M
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
1M-1.1M
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.44M
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.44M
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.3M-1.4M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3M-1.4M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
900K-1M
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
900K-1M
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$664
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Oklahoma State Election Board

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 950K
  • Above 1.00M
  • Above 1.10M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 950K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oklahoma Senate Election: Turnout". Above 950K leads at 93.5%. Next is Above 1.00M at 82%. $16K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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