The Prediction Markets

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

FinalKickoff
Traded
$126K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Christine Drazan
79.6%
Polymarket 80.5%(79.6% fair)polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Drazan
Last price
80.5%
Fair, margin removed
79.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ed Diehl
15.6%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Diehl
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chris Dudley
4%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Dudley
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kyle Duyck
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyle Duyck
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad T. Peters
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad T. Peters
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caleb Kintz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caleb Kintz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chael Sonnen
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chael Sonnen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Danielle Bethell
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Bethell
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Medina
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Medina
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Neuman
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Neuman
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Patrick Kopke-Hales
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3825 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patrick Kopke-Hales
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christine Drazan
  • Ed Diehl
  • Chris Dudley

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner". Christine Drazan last traded at 79.6%. Next is Ed Diehl at 15.6%. $126K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 19, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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