The Prediction Markets

Oregon Republican Senate nominee? (2028)

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Christine Drazan 12.9%

Next is David Smith at 12.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Christine Drazan 12.9%David Smith 12.9%Jo Rae Perkins 10.3%Alek Skarlatos 10.2%Ed Diehl 10.2%5 others 43.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Christine Drazan
12.9%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christine Drazan
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
David Smith
12.9%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Smith
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jo Rae Perkins
10.3%
Kalshi 10%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jo Rae Perkins
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alek Skarlatos
10.2%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alek Skarlatos
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Ed Diehl
10.2%
Kalshi 10%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ed Diehl
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cliff Bentz
10.1%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cliff Bentz
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Knute Buehler
9.4%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Knute Buehler
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brent Barker
8.8%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brent Barker
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
8.3%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Dudley
6.9%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Dudley
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Oregon Republican Party, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christine Drazan
  • David Smith
  • Jo Rae Perkins

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon Republican Senate nominee? (2028)". Christine Drazan leads at 12.9%. Next is David Smith at 12.9%. $10K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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