The Prediction Markets

Oregon Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.70M 84%

Next is Above 1.80M at 80%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.70M
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.70M
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.80M
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.80M
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.93M
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.93M
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00M
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00M
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.10M
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.10M
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
2M-2.1M
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M-2.1M
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.9M-2M
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $339 (3.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.9M-2M
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29.5¢
Sell Yes
27.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$339 (3.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.20M
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.20M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.30M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.30M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
2.2M+
16.9%
Polymarket 16.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2M+
Last price
16.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 2.40M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.40M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.1M-2.2M
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.1M-2.2M
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5M
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5M
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.8M-1.9M
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.8M-1.9M
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6M-1.7M
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6M-1.7M
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$964
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5M-1.6M
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5M-1.6M
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Polymarket
1.7M-1.8M
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.7M-1.8M
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Oregon Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.70M
  • Above 1.80M
  • Above 1.93M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.70M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oregon Senate Election: Turnout". Above 1.70M leads at 84%. Next is Above 1.80M at 80%. $21K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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