The Prediction Markets

Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tito-Dante Marimpietri 59.1%

Next is Derek Giberson at 21.7%. The venues differ most on Derek Giberson (Polymarket 25.9%, Kalshi 21%), a 4.9-point gap.

Tito-Dante Marimpietri 59.1%Derek Giberson 21.7%Jim Lee 6.2%Jeremy Large 2.9%Joseph Tomlins 2.5%4 others 7.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tito-Dante Marimpietri
59.1%
Polymarket 66.5%(60.2% fair)polled, 17s agoKalshi 71%(59.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tito-Dante Marimpietri
Last price
66.5%
Fair, margin removed
60.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tito-Dante Marimpietri
Last price
71%
Fair, margin removed
59.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 67¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 70¢.

Derek Giberson
21.7%
Polymarket 25.9%(23.4% fair)polled, 17s agoKalshi 21%(17.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Derek Giberson
Last price
25.9%
Fair, margin removed
23.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33.9¢
Sell Yes
17.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$295 (2.95x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Derek Giberson
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
17.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Jim Lee
6.2%
Polymarket 7%(6.3% fair)polled, 17s agoKalshi 7.5%(6.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jim Lee
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jim Lee
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11.1¢.

Jeremy Large
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Large
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joseph Tomlins
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joseph Tomlins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sherland Chhangur
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sherland Chhangur
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Henry Onwuachu
1.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 17s agoKalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Henry Onwuachu
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Henry Onwuachu
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Dave Westlake
1.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 17s agoKalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dave Westlake
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dave Westlake
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Michael Coons
1.5%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 17s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Coons
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Coons
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of Oshawa Clerk
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tito-Dante Marimpietri
  • Derek Giberson
  • Jim Lee

Live prices for Tito-Dante Marimpietri

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner". Tito-Dante Marimpietri leads at 59.1%. Next is Derek Giberson at 21.7%. $44K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

The 2026 Oshawa, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Oshawa, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Oshawa, Ontario.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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