The Prediction Markets

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 22 days
Traded
$95K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 170 96.9%

Next is Above 180 at 92.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 170
96.9%
Kalshi 98%polled, just nowKalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
92.8%
Kalshi 94%polled, just nowKalshi 91.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 185
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowKalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190
64.3%
Kalshi 62%polled, just nowKalshi 71%polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 195
41.3%
Kalshi 43%polled, just nowKalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 195
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 195
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
15.5%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowKalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 205
5.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowKalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210
4%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowKalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
November 30
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 220
2%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 170
  • Above 180
  • Above 185

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 170 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Panama Canal effectively closed by...?". Above 170 leads at 96.9%. Next is Above 180 at 92.8%. $95K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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