What are the odds of Pedro Alliana in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Pedro Alliana is currently priced at 59.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Ricardo Estigarribia in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Ricardo Estigarribia is currently priced at 19.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Miguel Prieto in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Miguel Prieto is currently priced at 19% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Eduardo Nakayama in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Eduardo Nakayama is currently priced at 15.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Basilio Núñez in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Basilio Núñez is currently priced at 12.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Yolanda Paredes in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Yolanda Paredes is currently priced at 10.8% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Juan Carlos Baruja in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Juan Carlos Baruja is currently priced at 10% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Raúl Latorre in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Raúl Latorre is currently priced at 9.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Alberto Martínez Simón in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Alberto Martínez Simón is currently priced at 6.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Paraguayo Cubas in Paraguay Presidential Election Winner?

Paraguayo Cubas is currently priced at 5.5% in prediction markets.

Paraguay Presidential Election Winner

Closes: May 1, 2028, in 18 months
Traded: $3K
Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated: just now

What the markets expect

Pedro Alliana 59.5%

Next is Ricardo Estigarribia at 19.8%. The venues differ most on Pedro Alliana (Polymarket 25%, Kalshi 71%), a 46-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket
Kalshi

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Kalshi

Best Yes price

Pedro AllianaArb

59.5%

25%

23¢ bid, 27¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

71%

65¢ bid, 74¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

27¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $370 (3.70x)

Pedro AllianaArb

59.5%

Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 71%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)

Polymarket

Contract: Pedro Alliana
Last price: 25%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 27¢
Sell Yes: 23¢
$100 on Yes pays: $370 (3.70x)
Volume: $88

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Pedro Alliana
Last price: 71%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 74¢
Sell Yes: 65¢
$100 on Yes pays: $135 (1.35x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 27¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.

Ricardo EstigarribiaArb

19.8%

26%

11¢ bid, 41¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Ricardo EstigarribiaArb

19.8%

Polymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Ricardo Estigarribia
Last price: 26%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 41¢
Sell Yes: 11¢
$100 on Yes pays: $244 (2.44x)
Volume: $168

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Ricardo Estigarribia
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $20

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Miguel Prieto

19%

20%

7¢ bid, 33¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

16%

16¢ bid, 20¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

20¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Miguel Prieto

19%

Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)

Polymarket

Contract: Miguel Prieto
Last price: 20%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 33¢
Sell Yes: 7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $303 (3.03x)
Volume: $138

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Miguel Prieto
Last price: 16%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 20¢
Sell Yes: 16¢
$100 on Yes pays: $500 (5.00x)
Volume: $20

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 20¢.

Eduardo NakayamaArb

15.3%

20%

7¢ bid, 33¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

— bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

6¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Eduardo NakayamaArb

15.3%

Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Eduardo Nakayama
Last price: 20%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 33¢
Sell Yes: 7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $303 (3.03x)
Volume: $153

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Eduardo Nakayama
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $20

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Basilio NúñezArb

12.5%

22.5%

9¢ bid, 36¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Basilio NúñezArb

12.5%

Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Basilio Núñez
Last price: 22.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 36¢
Sell Yes: 9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $278 (2.78x)
Volume: $58

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Basilio Núñez
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Yolanda Paredes

10.8%

19%

2¢ bid, 36¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Yolanda Paredes

10.8%

Polymarket 19%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Yolanda Paredes
Last price: 19%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 36¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $278 (2.78x)
Volume: $58

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Yolanda Paredes
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Juan Carlos Baruja

10%

17.5%

4¢ bid, 31¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Juan Carlos Baruja

10%

Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Juan Carlos Baruja
Last price: 17.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 31¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $323 (3.23x)
Volume: $58

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Juan Carlos Baruja
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Raúl Latorre

9.3%

16%

2¢ bid, 30¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Raúl Latorre

9.3%

Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Raúl Latorre
Last price: 16%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 30¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $333 (3.33x)
Volume: $108

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Raúl Latorre
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Alberto Martínez Simón

6.3%

10%

1¢ bid, 19¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Alberto Martínez Simón

6.3%

Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Alberto Martínez Simón
Last price: 10%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 19¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $526 (5.26x)
Volume: $58

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Alberto Martínez Simón
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Paraguayo Cubas

5.5%

1¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

Not listed

10¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Paraguayo Cubas

5.5%

Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Paraguayo Cubas
Last price: 5.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $93

Trade this on Polymarket

Show 5 more outcomes

Lilian Samaniego

4.5%

6.5%

1¢ bid, 12¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Lilian Samaniego

4.5%

Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Lilian Samaniego
Last price: 6.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 12¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $833 (8.33x)
Volume: $155

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Lilian Samaniego
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Arnoldo Wiens

4.3%

5.5%

2¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

1¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Arnoldo Wiens

4.3%

Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Arnoldo Wiens
Last price: 5.5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $58

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Arnoldo Wiens
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $20

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Celeste Amarilla

4.2%

2¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Celeste Amarilla

4.2%

Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Celeste Amarilla
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $41

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Celeste Amarilla
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Kattya González

4.2%

2¢ bid, 10¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

2.5%

— bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

5¢ on Kalshi

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Kattya González

4.2%

Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Kattya González
Last price: 6%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 10¢
Sell Yes: 2¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,000 (10.0x)
Volume: $93

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Kattya González
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Luis Pettengill

3¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 1 min ago

1¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 16s ago

7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Luis Pettengill

Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Luis Pettengill
Last price: 5%
As of: Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $105

Trade this on Polymarket

Kalshi

Contract: Luis Pettengill
Last price: 1%
As of: Polled just now
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $20

Trade this on Kalshi

Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Pedro Alliana on Polymarket at 27¢, sell on Kalshi at 65¢ (3800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

Trading closes at different times: May 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 8, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle, source: tsje.gov.py
Kalshi resolves via:: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Presidency of the Republic of Paraguay, Honorable Cámara de Diputados del Paraguay, Honorable Cámara de Senadores del Paraguay

Show full rule comparison

Trading closes May 1, 2028, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 8, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Pedro Alliana
Ricardo Estigarribia
Miguel Prieto

Live prices for Pedro Alliana

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

Where to trade

Polymarket

Observed 1m ago

Volume: $1K
Liquidity: $4K
Outcomes listed: 15
Trading closes: May 1, 2028

Trade on Polymarket

Kalshi

Observed 15s ago

Volume: $2K
Liquidity: Not reported
Outcomes listed: 14
Trading closes: Jan 8, 2029

Trade on Kalshi

Paper trade

Practise on this market, risk-free

A free account gives you $1,000 of paper money to buy Yes or No at Kalshi and Polymarket's live prices, fees included, and track your results.

Sample

Simulated with paper money: orders fill in full at the venue's best price plus its taker fee; real orders this size could move the price. Not real money and not advice. Your portfolio

Big trades

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Cash paid by the taker, from each venue’s public trade feed. Refreshes every 30 s.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Paraguay Presidential Election Winner". Pedro Alliana leads at 59.5%. Next is Ricardo Estigarribia at 19.8%. $3K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by May 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Paraguayan Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by April 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Paraguay government sources, including the Tribunal Superior de Justicia Electoral (https://www.tsje.gov.py/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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Paraguay Presidential Election Winner

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What the markets expect

Odds by venue