The Prediction Markets

Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?

Closed
Jun 2, 2026
Traded
$72K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 2, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Dem-Rep
72.1%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dem-Rep
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dem-Dem
25.3%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dem-Dem
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rep-Rep
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 3822 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rep-Rep
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dem-Rep
  • Dem-Dem
  • Rep-Rep

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?". Dem-Rep last traded at 72.1%. Next is Dem-Dem at 25.3%. $72K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 2, 2026.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party. In case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to "Other". If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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