The Prediction Markets

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/16 - 11/22)

Closes
Nov 24, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$20.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 94.5%

Next is Above 3 at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 29 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
94.5%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 29 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 29 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$471K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 3
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$17.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 9
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
December
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 29 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
December
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 29 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 10
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
November
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 29 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
November
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 29 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yes
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
  • Above 3
  • Above 4

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/16 - 11/22)". No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 leads at 94.5%. Next is Above 3 at 92%. $20.7M has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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