The Prediction Markets

Peggy Flanagan runs behind Amy Klobuchar by...?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

6-9 points behind 33.2%

Next is 0-3 points behind at 22.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

6-9 points behind 33.2%0-3 points behind 22.8%3-6 points behind 20.7%9+ points behind 17.6%Runs ahead 5.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
6-9 points behind
33.2%
Polymarket 32%(33.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
6-9 points behind
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
33.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0-3 points behind
22.8%
Polymarket 22%(22.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
0-3 points behind
Last price
22%
Fair, margin removed
22.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Polymarket
3-6 points behind
20.7%
Polymarket 20%(20.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
3-6 points behind
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
20.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$987
Trade this on Polymarket
9+ points behind
17.6%
Polymarket 17%(17.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
9+ points behind
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
17.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Runs ahead
5.7%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Runs ahead
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 6-9 points behind
  • 0-3 points behind
  • 3-6 points behind

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Peggy Flanagan runs behind Amy Klobuchar by...?". 6-9 points behind leads at 33.2%. Next is 0-3 points behind at 22.8%. $6K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

The 2026 Minnesota general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Minnesota, and Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Minnesota. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Peggy Flanagan’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate election falls below Amy Klobuchar’s vote share in the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. If Flanagan’s vote share exceeds Klobuchar’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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