The Prediction Markets

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

FinalKickoff
Traded
$469K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 12, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 162 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jorge Nieto
97.5%
Polymarket 90.8%(97.5% fair)polled, 3888 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Nieto
Last price
90.8%
Fair, margin removed
97.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
81.6¢
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ricardo Belmont
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ricardo Belmont
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$224K
Trade this on Polymarket
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$60K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alfonso López Chau
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alfonso López Chau
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlos Álvarez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Álvarez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlos Espá
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Espá
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
César Acuña
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
César Acuña
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Enrique Valderrama
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Enrique Valderrama
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernando Olivera
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Olivera
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fiorella Molinelli
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fiorella Molinelli
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
George Forsyth
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Forsyth
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
José Luna
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Luna
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$856
Trade this on Polymarket
José Williams
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Williams
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Keiko Fujimori
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Keiko Fujimori
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mario Vizcarra
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mario Vizcarra
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marisol Pérez Tello
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marisol Pérez Tello
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mesías Guevara
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mesías Guevara
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael López Aliaga
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael López Aliaga
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Roberto Chiabra
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roberto Chiabra
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladimir Cerrón
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Cerrón
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wolfgang Grozo
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wolfgang Grozo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yonhy Lescano
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3888 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yonhy Lescano
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jorge Nieto
  • Ricardo Belmont
  • Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place". Jorge Nieto last traded at 97.5%. Next is Ricardo Belmont at 1%. $469K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 12, 2026.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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