The Prediction Markets

Prešov Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Frantisek Olha 82.5%

Next is Rastislav Mochnacky at 7.9%. The venues differ most on Rastislav Mochnacky (Polymarket 6.3%, Kalshi 14%), a 7.7-point gap.

Frantisek Olha 82.5%Rastislav Mochnacky 7.9%Pavel Hagyari 3.6%Svetlana Pavlovičová 2.3%Artur Benes 1.9%Martin Estocak 1.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Frantisek Olha
82.5%
Polymarket 85.5%(84.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 84%(77.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
František Oľha
Last price
85.5%
Fair, margin removed
84.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
František Oľha
Last price
84%
Fair, margin removed
77.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 83¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 87¢.

Rastislav Mochnacky
7.9%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%(12.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rastislav Mochnacký
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rastislav Mochnacký
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.4¢.

Pavel Hagyari
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pavel Hagyari
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$485
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pavel Hagyari
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Svetlana Pavlovičová
2.3%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Svetlana Pavlovičová
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Artur Benes
1.9%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Artúr Benes
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Artúr Benes
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Martin Estocak
1.8%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martin Eštočák
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Eštočák
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 24, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: volby.statistics.sk
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: City of Prešov municipal election commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 24, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Frantisek Olha
  • Rastislav Mochnacky
  • Pavel Hagyari

Live prices for Frantisek Olha

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Prešov Mayoral Election Winner". Frantisek Olha leads at 82.5%. Next is Rastislav Mochnacky at 7.9%. $29K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

The 2026 Prešov mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Prešov as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Prešov, Prešov Region and Slovakia, including the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic (https://volby.statistics.sk/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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