The Prediction Markets

Prime Day 2026 U.S. online spend

Closed
Jun 27, 2026
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 27, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least $20 billion
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $20 billion
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $22 billion
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $22 billion
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$980
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $24 billion
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $24 billion
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $26 billion
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $26 billion
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $28 billion
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $28 billion
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $30 billion
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $30 billion
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $32 billion
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $32 billion
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Kalshi
At least $34 billion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least $34 billion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Adobe Analytics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least $20 billion
  • At least $22 billion
  • At least $24 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Prime Day 2026 U.S. online spend". At least $20 billion last traded at 99%. Next is At least $22 billion at 88%. $6K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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