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What the markets expect
Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera 46%
Next is Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero at 4.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera46%46%32¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 46s ago60¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera46%Polymarket 46%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera
46%
46%
32¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
60¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $6K
Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 46s ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $10K
Santiago Nieto Castillo3.9%3.9%1.3¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 46s ago6.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)Santiago Nieto Castillo3.9%Polymarket 3.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Santiago Nieto Castillo
3.9%
3.9%
1.3¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
6.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Santiago Nieto Castillo
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Santiago Nieto Castillo
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $2K
Laura Patricia Polo Herrera0.9%0.9%0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 46s ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)Laura Patricia Polo Herrera0.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Laura Patricia Polo Herrera
0.9%
0.9%
0.2¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Laura Patricia Polo Herrera
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Laura Patricia Polo Herrera
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
Teresa Calzada Rovirosa0.8%0.8%0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 46s ago1.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)Teresa Calzada Rovirosa0.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Teresa Calzada Rovirosa
0.8%
0.8%
0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Teresa Calzada Rovirosa
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Teresa Calzada Rovirosa
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $1K
Josué Guerrero Trápala0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)Josué Guerrero Trápala0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Josué Guerrero Trápala
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1.1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Josué Guerrero Trápala
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josué Guerrero Trápala
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $9,091 (90.9x)
- Volume
- $1K
Paulina Aguado Romero0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Paulina Aguado Romero0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Paulina Aguado Romero
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Paulina Aguado Romero
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paulina Aguado Romero
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $824
Agustín Dorantes Lámbarri0.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)Agustín Dorantes Lámbarri0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Agustín Dorantes Lámbarri
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Agustín Dorantes Lámbarri
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Agustín Dorantes Lámbarri
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $1K
José María Tapia Franco0.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)José María Tapia Franco0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
José María Tapia Franco
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
José María Tapia Franco
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- José María Tapia Franco
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $964
Ricardo Astudillo Suárez0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Ricardo Astudillo Suárez0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ricardo Astudillo Suárez
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ricardo Astudillo Suárez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ricardo Astudillo Suárez
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Abigail Arredondo Ramos0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Abigail Arredondo Ramos0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Abigail Arredondo Ramos
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Abigail Arredondo Ramos
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Abigail Arredondo Ramos
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $861
Gilberto Herrera Ruiz0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Gilberto Herrera Ruiz0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Gilberto Herrera Ruiz
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Gilberto Herrera Ruiz
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gilberto Herrera Ruiz
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $687
Guadalupe Murguía Gutiérrez0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Guadalupe Murguía Gutiérrez0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Guadalupe Murguía Gutiérrez
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Guadalupe Murguía Gutiérrez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Guadalupe Murguía Gutiérrez
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $831
Manuel Garrido Patrón0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Manuel Garrido Patrón0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Manuel Garrido Patrón
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Manuel Garrido Patrón
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Manuel Garrido Patrón
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $1K
Mario Mauro Ramírez González0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Mario Mauro Ramírez González0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Mario Mauro Ramírez González
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Mario Mauro Ramírez González
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mario Mauro Ramírez González
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $1K
Paul Ospital Carrera0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Paul Ospital Carrera0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Paul Ospital Carrera
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Paul Ospital Carrera
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paul Ospital Carrera
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $761
Beatriz Robles Gutiérrez0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Beatriz Robles Gutiérrez0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Beatriz Robles Gutiérrez
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Beatriz Robles Gutiérrez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Beatriz Robles Gutiérrez
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $912
Marco Antonio Del Prete Tercero0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Marco Antonio Del Prete Tercero0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Marco Antonio Del Prete Tercero
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Marco Antonio Del Prete Tercero
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marco Antonio Del Prete Tercero
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $958
Agustín Hernández Ortiz0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Agustín Hernández Ortiz0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Agustín Hernández Ortiz
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Agustín Hernández Ortiz
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Agustín Hernández Ortiz
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $685
Astrid Alejandra Ortega Vázquez0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Astrid Alejandra Ortega Vázquez0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Astrid Alejandra Ortega Vázquez
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Astrid Alejandra Ortega Vázquez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Astrid Alejandra Ortega Vázquez
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $542
Luis Humberto Fernández Fuentes0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 46s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Luis Humberto Fernández Fuentes0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Luis Humberto Fernández Fuentes
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Luis Humberto Fernández Fuentes
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Luis Humberto Fernández Fuentes
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $3K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera
- Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero
- Santiago Nieto Castillo
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Querétaro Governor Election Winner". Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera leads at 46%. Next is Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero at 4.5%. $37K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Querétaro on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Querétaro gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Querétaro and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Querétaro and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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