The Prediction Markets

Quito mayoral election winner?

Closes
Nov 29, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Pabel Muñoz 32.1%

Next is Harold Burbano at 22.3%. The venues differ most on Harold Burbano (Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 18%), a 12-point gap.

Pabel Muñoz 32.1%Harold Burbano 22.3%Wilson Merino 12.4%Jorge Yunda 11.7%Linda Romero 6.4%5 others 15.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pabel Muñoz
32.1%
Polymarket 37.5%(32% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 42%(32.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pabel Muñoz
Last price
37.5%
Fair, margin removed
32%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pabel Muñoz
Last price
42%
Fair, margin removed
32.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Harold Burbano
22.3%
Polymarket 29.5%(25.2% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 18%(14% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harold Burbano
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
25.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harold Burbano
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Wilson Merino
12.4%
Polymarket 14.5%(12.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 16%(12.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wilson Merino
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wilson Merino
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
12.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jorge Yunda
11.7%
Polymarket 12.5%(10.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 19%(14.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Yunda
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jorge Yunda
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
14.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Linda Romero
6.4%
Polymarket 7%(6% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 10%(7.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linda Romero
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Linda Romero
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Carla Larrea
4%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.8% fair)polled, 2 h agoKalshi 6%(4.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carla Larrea
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$630
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carla Larrea
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
4.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

César Díaz
3.3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 7%(5.4% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
César Díaz
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$609
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
César Díaz
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Paúl Desamblanc
3.3%
Polymarket 3.9%(3.3% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paúl Desamblanc
Last price
3.9%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Polymarket
Galo Almeida
2.3%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Galo Almeida
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernardo Jijón
2.2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 3.5%(2.7% fair)polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernardo Jijón
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernardo Jijón
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the result is not known by June 30, 2027; Kalshi text shows no such fallback here (full rules not provided).
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket uses consensus of credible reporting, falling back to CNE/TCE official information if ambiguous. Timing and source may differ in disputed results.
  • Polymarket lists Galo Almeida and Paúl Desamblanc, which Kalshi does not list; these outcomes are not linked.
  • Kalshi rules provided are brief and defer to full rules not shown, so details such as the expiration date, interim mayors and the official source are not visible.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 30, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: National Electoral Council of Ecuador
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the result is not known by June 30, 2027; Kalshi text shows no such fallback here (full rules not provided).
  • Kalshi allows accelerated resolution on a consensus of media calls; Polymarket uses consensus of credible reporting, falling back to CNE/TCE official information if ambiguous. Timing and source may differ in disputed results.
  • Polymarket lists Galo Almeida and Paúl Desamblanc, which Kalshi does not list; these outcomes are not linked.
  • Kalshi rules provided are brief and defer to full rules not shown, so details such as the expiration date, interim mayors and the official source are not visible.
  • Trading closes Nov 30, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pabel Muñoz
  • Harold Burbano
  • Wilson Merino

Live prices for Pabel Muñoz

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Quito mayoral election winner?". Pabel Muñoz leads at 32.1%. Next is Harold Burbano at 22.3%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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