The Prediction Markets

Republican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31?

Closed
Mar 31, 2026
Traded
$528K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 205 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
90%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4942 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
90%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 205 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
70%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4942 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
70%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 205 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
40%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4942 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
40%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 205 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$282K
Trade this on Polymarket
75%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4942 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
75%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 205 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$115K
Trade this on Polymarket
80%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4942 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
80%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 205 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 90%
  • 70%
  • 40%

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Republican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31?". 90% last traded at 0.2%. Next is 70% at 0.1%. $528K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on XXX or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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