The Prediction Markets

Rheinland-Pfalz Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Closed
Mar 22, 2026
Traded
$477K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 22, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 215 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
SPD
99.7%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5165 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
SPD
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
AfD
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5165 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
AfD
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$304K
Trade this on Polymarket
BSW
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5165 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
BSW
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
CDU
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5165 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
CDU
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$95K
Trade this on Polymarket
FDP
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5165 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
FDP
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
FW
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5165 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
FW
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Grüne
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5165 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Grüne
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Linke
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5165 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Linke
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 215 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • SPD
  • AfD
  • BSW

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Rheinland-Pfalz Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place". SPD last traded at 99.7%. Next is AfD at 0.1%. $477K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 22, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate (Rheinland-Pfalz) are scheduled to take place on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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