The Prediction Markets

Rhode Island Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

350K-400K 29.9%

Next is 300K-350K at 25.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

350K-400K 29.9%300K-350K 25.4%400K-450K 19.6%250K 15.4%450K+ 4.9%250K-300K 4.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
350K-400K
29.9%
Polymarket 28.3%(29.9% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 52.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
350K-400K
Last price
28.3%
Fair, margin removed
29.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52.1¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
300K-350K
25.4%
Polymarket 24%(25.4% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
300K-350K
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
25.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
400K-450K
19.6%
Polymarket 18.5%(19.6% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
400K-450K
Last price
18.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
250K
15.4%
Polymarket 14.6%(15.4% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 26.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $376 (3.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
250K
Last price
14.6%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$376 (3.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
450K+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
450K+
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
250K-300K
4.8%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
250K-300K
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 350K-400K
  • 300K-350K
  • 400K-450K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rhode Island Senate Election: Turnout". 350K-400K leads at 29.9%. Next is 300K-350K at 25.4%. $12K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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