The Prediction Markets

Rideshare app downloads array index in November 2026

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 33 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 80 97.5%

Next is Above 85 at 96.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 80
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 85
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 85
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 95
53.5%
Kalshi 53.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 95
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 105
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 105
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 110
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 115
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 115
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 120
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 80
  • Above 85
  • Above 90

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rideshare app downloads array index in November 2026". Above 80 leads at 97.5%. Next is Above 85 at 96.5%. $9K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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