The Prediction Markets

Rotterdam Municipal Election Winner

Closed
Mar 18, 2026
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 217 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
GroenLinks–Labour Party (GL–PvdA)
99.9%
Polymarket 99.4%(99.9% fair)polled, 5211 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
GroenLinks–Labour Party (GL–PvdA)
Last price
99.4%
Fair, margin removed
99.9%
As of
Polled 217 d ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Livable Rotterdam (LR)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5211 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Livable Rotterdam (LR)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 217 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • GroenLinks–Labour Party (GL–PvdA)
  • Livable Rotterdam (LR)

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Rotterdam Municipal Election Winner". GroenLinks–Labour Party (GL–PvdA) last traded at 99.9%. Next is Livable Rotterdam (LR) at 0.1%. $23K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 18, 2026.

Municipal elections to elect the Rotterdam Municipal Council are scheduled for March 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Rotterdam Municipal Council (Gemeenteraad Rotterdam) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Dutch government, specifically the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad - https://www.kiesraad.nl/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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