The Prediction Markets

Rubio's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 57 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

25% 51.7%

Next is 15% at 24.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

25% 51.7%15% 24.8%30% 23.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
25%
51.7%
Polymarket 59.5%(51.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
25%
Last price
59.5%
Fair, margin removed
51.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
15%
24.8%
Polymarket 28.5%(24.8% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
15%
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$645
Trade this on Polymarket
30%
23.5%
Polymarket 27%(23.5% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
30%
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25%
  • 15%
  • 30%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Rubio's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31?". 25% leads at 51.7%. Next is 15% at 24.8%. $4K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or is equal to or below the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which Marco Rubio's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or above the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for Marco Rubio (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Marco Rubio in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing before January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing Marco Rubio from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for Marco Rubio between market creation and January 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, a "↑" market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No", and a "↓" market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Marco Rubio in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on Marco Rubio's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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