Russia x Ukraine major prisoner exchange by...?

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Russia x Ukraine major prisoner exchange by...?". December 31 leads at 80.3%. Next is November 30 at 19.7%. $1K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

On November 11, 2026, following US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine agreed in principle to a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war, with the number of prisoners involved still being finalized. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed major prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine takes place between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A prisoner exchange refers to a reciprocal transfer in which each country releases to the other at least one living individual held in its custody. Exchanges conducted with the assistance of third parties (e.g., mediation by the United Arab Emirates or the United States, or a handover in Belarus) will qualify. A prisoner exchange is major if at least 1,000 individuals in total, counting those released by both countries combined, are released as part of it (e.g., an exchange of 500 for 500). The numbers released by each side need not be equal. Military and civilian detainees held by either government who are released as part of the exchange will be counted. Releases on different days count as one prisoner exchange only if the government of Russia, the government of Ukraine, or a consensus of credible reporting describes them as stages of the same agreed exchange (e.g., the 500-for-500 exchange on March 5–6, 2026). Releases held more than 7 calendar days (ET) after the previous release count as a separate exchange regardless of how they are framed by Russia, Ukraine, or credible reporting. Only releases completed between market creation and the listed date count toward the total. The following will not qualify as an exchange or count toward the total: the repatriation of bodies or remains; unilateral releases; and transfers of individuals not held in detention, such as family reunifications, humanitarian evacuations, or the return of children. An agreement or announcement of a future exchange will not qualify unless the exchange actually takes place. The number of individuals released will be used as communicated by the governments of Russia or Ukraine, including where summed across multiple releases in a single exchange. Where a government reports only the individuals it received or released, the number released by each side will be combined from both governments' communications. If the two governments report conflicting figures for the same side, the lower figure will be used. If the number of released individuals cannot be determined from official government communications, a consensus of credible reporting will be used. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

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