The Prediction Markets

Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 min ago
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What the markets expect

December 31 88%

Next is November 30 at 61.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31
88%
Polymarket 88%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30
61.5%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31
  • November 30

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

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Top of book

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by...?". December 31 leads at 88%. Next is November 30 at 61.5%. $1K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

On November 11, 2026, following US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine agreed in principle to a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war, with the number of prisoners involved still being finalized. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any confirmed prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine takes place between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A prisoner exchange refers to a reciprocal transfer in which each country releases to the other at least one living individual held in its custody. Exchanges conducted with the assistance of third parties (e.g., mediation by the United Arab Emirates or the United States, or a handover in Belarus) will qualify. If an exchange is conducted in multiple stages, the first completed stage will qualify. The number of prisoners involved does not matter, and the numbers released by each side need not be equal. Any swap involving military or civilian detainees held by either government will qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: the repatriation of bodies or remains; unilateral releases; and transfers of individuals not held in detention, such as family reunifications, humanitarian evacuations, or the return of children. An agreement or announcement of a future exchange will not qualify unless the exchange actually takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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