Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above 3660 99%
Next is Above 3630 at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 366099%99%95¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 h agoNo askAbove 366099%Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Above 3660
99%
99%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 h ago
No ask
Above 3660
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3660
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- Volume
- $444
Above 363098%98%95¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 h agoNo askAbove 363098%Kalshi 98%polled, 2 h ago
Above 3630
98%
98%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 h ago
No ask
Above 3630
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3630
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- Volume
- $936
Above 375096%96%94¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 h agoNo askAbove 375096%Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h ago
Above 3750
96%
96%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 h ago
No ask
Above 3750
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3750
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $1K
Above 369095%95%95¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 h agoNo askAbove 369095%Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h ago
Above 3690
95%
95%
95¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 h ago
No ask
Above 3690
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3690
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- Volume
- $200
Above 372094%94%94¢ bid, — askpolled, 2 h agoNo askAbove 372094%Kalshi 94%polled, 2 h ago
Above 3720
94%
94%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, 2 h ago
No ask
Above 3720
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3720
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $400
Above 378087%87%84¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 2 h ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Above 378087%Kalshi 87%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 3780
87%
87%
84¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Above 3780
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3780
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $605
Above 381074%74%65¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 2 h ago74¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Above 381074%Kalshi 74%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Above 3810
74%
74%
65¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
74¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Above 3810
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3810
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 384050%50%41¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 2 h ago50¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Above 384050%Kalshi 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Above 3840
50%
50%
41¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
50¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Above 3840
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3840
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 387029%29%20¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 2 h ago29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Above 387029%Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Above 3870
29%
29%
20¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Above 3870
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3870
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $150
Above 390015%15%6¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 2 h ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Above 390015%Kalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Above 3900
15%
15%
6¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Above 3900
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3900
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $4K
Above 39309%9%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 h ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 39309%Kalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 3930
9%
9%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 3930
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3930
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $3K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 3660
- Above 3630
- Above 3750
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Samsara customers over $100k ARR in Q3 2027". Above 3660 leads at 99%. Next is Above 3630 at 98%. $15K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 2, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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