The Prediction Markets

Santa Cruz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)

Closed
Apr 19, 2026
Traded
$754K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 19, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 196 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Juan Pablo Velasco
54.9%
Polymarket 53.8%(54.9% fair)polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 54.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $183 (1.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Pablo Velasco
Last price
53.8%
Fair, margin removed
54.9%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
54.5¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$183 (1.83x)
Volume
$307K
Trade this on Polymarket
Otto Ritter
44.5%
Polymarket 43.6%(44.5% fair)polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 46.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $216 (2.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Otto Ritter
Last price
43.6%
Fair, margin removed
44.5%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
46.3¢
Sell Yes
40.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$216 (2.16x)
Volume
$91K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luis Fernando Camacho
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Fernando Camacho
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$142K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chi Hyun Chung
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chi Hyun Chung
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guido Eduardo Nayar
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guido Eduardo Nayar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Carlos Medrano
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Carlos Medrano
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Julio César Tórrez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julio César Tórrez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mauricio Quezada
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mauricio Quezada
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miguel Cadima
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miguel Cadima
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladimir Peña
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4709 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladimir Peña
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 196 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Juan Pablo Velasco
  • Otto Ritter
  • Luis Fernando Camacho

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Santa Cruz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)". Juan Pablo Velasco last traded at 54.9%. Next is Otto Ritter at 44.5%. $754K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 22, 2026.

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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