The Prediction Markets

Senate Combo: Mississippi, South Carolina, Montana

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Reps sweep 67.8%

Next is Reps MS & MT, Dems SC at 13.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Reps sweep 67.8%Reps MS & MT, Dems SC 13.6%Reps MS, Dems SC, Ind MT 4.7%Dems MS, Reps SC & MT 4.5%Dems MS & SC, Reps MT 3.7%3 others 5.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Reps sweep
67.8%
Polymarket 74.5%(67.8% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps sweep
Last price
74.5%
Fair, margin removed
67.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Polymarket
Reps MS & MT, Dems SC
13.6%
Polymarket 15%(13.6% fair)polled, 25s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps MS & MT, Dems SC
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Reps MS, Dems SC, Ind MT
4.7%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps MS, Dems SC, Ind MT
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Dems MS, Reps SC & MT
4.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems MS, Reps SC & MT
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
Dems MS & SC, Reps MT
3.7%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems MS & SC, Reps MT
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Polymarket
Dems MS & SC, Ind MT
3.2%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems MS & SC, Ind MT
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Polymarket
Dems MS, Reps SC, Ind MT
1.5%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dems MS, Reps SC, Ind MT
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Polymarket
Reps MS & SC, Ind MT
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reps MS & SC, Ind MT
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Reps sweep
  • Reps MS & MT, Dems SC
  • Reps MS, Dems SC, Ind MT

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Senate Combo: Mississippi, South Carolina, Montana". Reps sweep leads at 67.8%. Next is Reps MS & MT, Dems SC at 13.6%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Montana that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The Montana race is represented by “Republican” and “Independent” (Ind) options. The “Independent” option refers to a win by a candidate running as an independent in the Montana Senate election. For purposes of this market, Seth Bodnar will be considered to be an Independent regardless of any affiliation that he may have with any party. If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins the Mississippi or South Carolina election, or the Democratic nominee or a third-party candidate wins the Montana election, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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