The Prediction Markets

Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$39K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

45-50% 35.1%

Next is 40-45% at 32.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

45-50% 35.1%40-45% 32.1%35-40% 17.8%50-55% 10.4%55%+ 2.5%35% 2.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
45-50%
35.1%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
45-50%
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
40-45%
32.1%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-45%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
35-40%
17.8%
Polymarket 18%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
35-40%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
50-55%
10.4%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
50-55%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
55%+
2.5%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
55%+
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
35%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
35%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: rik.parlament.gov.rs

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 45-50%
  • 40-45%
  • 35-40%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?". 45-50% leads at 35.1%. Next is 40-45% at 32.1%. $39K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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