The Prediction Markets

Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$56K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 3,000,000 97%

Next is At least 3,150,000 at 97%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
At least 3,000,000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3,000,000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3,150,000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3,150,000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3,300,000
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3,300,000
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3,450,000
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3,450,000
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3,600,000
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3,600,000
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3,750,000
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3,750,000
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3,900,000
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3,900,000
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4,050,000
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,050,000
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4,125,000
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,125,000
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4,200,000
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,200,000
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
62-66%
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
62-66%
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 4,350,000
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,350,000
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
66-70%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
66-70%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 4,500,000
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,500,000
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4,650,000
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,650,000
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
70%+
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
70%+
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
At least 4,800,000
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,800,000
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4,950,000
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4,950,000
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
58-62%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
58-62%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
58%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
58%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: publikacije.stat.gov.rs
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 3,000,000
  • At least 3,150,000
  • At least 3,300,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list At least 3,000,000 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout". At least 3,000,000 leads at 97%. Next is At least 3,150,000 at 97%. $56K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2023 example: https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2024/Pdf/G20246006.pdf). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (Republička izborna komisija, https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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