The Prediction Markets

Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

United Serbia 10%+ 18.4%

Next is United Serbia 5-10% at 17.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

United Serbia 10%+ 18.4%United Serbia 5-10% 17.9%United Serbia <2% 13.5%Student List 5-10% 12.6%United Serbia 2-5% 11.7%3 others 25.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
United Serbia 10%+
18.4%
Polymarket 20.5%(18.4% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Serbia 10%+
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
18.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
United Serbia 5-10%
17.9%
Polymarket 20%(17.9% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Serbia 5-10%
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
17.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
United Serbia <2%
13.5%
Polymarket 15.1%(13.5% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Serbia <2%
Last price
15.1%
Fair, margin removed
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Student List 5-10%
12.6%
Polymarket 14%(12.6% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Student List 5-10%
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
United Serbia 2-5%
11.7%
Polymarket 13.1%(11.7% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Serbia 2-5%
Last price
13.1%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Student List <2%
9.9%
Polymarket 11%(9.9% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Student List <2%
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Student List 10%+
8.5%
Polymarket 9.5%(8.5% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Student List 10%+
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Student List 2-5%
7.5%
Polymarket 8.4%(7.5% fair)polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Student List 2-5%
Last price
8.4%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • United Serbia 10%+
  • United Serbia 5-10%
  • United Serbia <2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Serbia Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory". United Serbia 10%+ leads at 18.4%. Next is United Serbia 5-10% at 17.9%. $18K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two electoral lists in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place electoral lists. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two lists receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia attributes them to the named electoral list. Vote percentages attributed to other lists or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a list other than Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia or Student List – Students Win receives the most valid votes, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. If two or more lists tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another list wins”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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