The Prediction Markets

South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner

Closed
Mar 21, 2026
Traded
$109K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 216 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Labor
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 5200 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Labor
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 216 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Labor

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "South Australia Parliamentary Election Winner". Labor last traded at 100%. $109K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 21, 2026.

The 2026 South Australian state election will be held on or before 21 March 2026 to elect members of the 56th Parliament of South Australia. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party controls the most seats in the House of Assembly (South Australia’s lower house) as a result of the next South Australian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a higher total number of first preference votes. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party’s shorthand name. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Australian government, specifically the South Australian Electoral Commission (ECSA) (https://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/). Note: All candidates marked on the ballot as independent candidates will not contribute to the totals of any political party. This includes, for example, Socialist candidates running as independents.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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