The Prediction Markets

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028

Closes
Nov 8, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Yes 94%

Next is Marco Rubio at 41%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Yes
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yes
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marco Rubio
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ron DeSantis
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brian Kemp
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brian Kemp
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Massie
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Massie
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Glenn Youngkin
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Marjorie Taylor Greene
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Polymarket
Tucker Carlson
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tucker Carlson
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivanka Trump
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivanka Trump
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Josh Hawley
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cotton
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cotton
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Greg Abbott
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greg Abbott
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Rand Paul
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Ted Cruz
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Vivek Ramaswamy
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Elon Musk
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ron DeSantis

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Yes for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028". Yes leads at 94%. Next is Marco Rubio at 41%. $4K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2028.

South Carolina is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process by which the South Carolina public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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