The Prediction Markets

South Carolina Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.40M 88%

Next is Above 1.68M at 71%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.40M
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.40M
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.68M
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.68M
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.76M
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.76M
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$890
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.85M
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.85M
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.93M
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.93M
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6M-1.8M
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6M-1.8M
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.00M
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00M
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.2M+
22.4%
Polymarket 22.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $418 (4.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2M+
Last price
22.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23.9¢
Sell Yes
20.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$418 (4.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.8M-2M
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.8M-2M
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2M-2.2M
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
2M-2.2M
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Above 2.20M
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.20M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.40M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.40M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
1.4M
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4M
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.4M-1.6M
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.4M-1.6M
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$657
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: South Carolina State Election Commission

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.40M
  • Above 1.68M
  • Above 1.76M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.40M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Carolina Senate Election: Turnout". Above 1.40M leads at 88%. Next is Above 1.68M at 71%. $19K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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