The Prediction Markets

South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 260K 90%

Next is Above 300K at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 260K
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 340K
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 360K
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 360K
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$259
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 380K
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 380K
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 390K
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 390K
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
350K-375K
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
350K-375K
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
375K-400K
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
375K-400K
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 410K
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 410K
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$750
Trade this on Kalshi
300K-325K
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $581 (5.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
300K-325K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17.2¢
Sell Yes
14.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$581 (5.81x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
400K+
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
400K+
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15.5¢
Sell Yes
14.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$645 (6.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 440K
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 440K
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
250K-275K
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
250K-275K
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$606 (6.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
275K-300K
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
275K-300K
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
325K-350K
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
325K-350K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
250K
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
250K
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$965
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: South Dakota Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 260K
  • Above 300K
  • Above 340K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 260K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout". Above 260K leads at 90%. Next is Above 300K at 81%. $19K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets