The Prediction Markets

Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q1 2027

Closes
Aug 19, 2027, in 10 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Above 50.5 million 98%

Next is Above 51.5 million at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 50.5 million
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50.5 million
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
75¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 51.5 million
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 51.5 million
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 52 million
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 52 million
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 51 million
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 51 million
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 54 million
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 54 million
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 52.5 million
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 52.5 million
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 53 million
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 53 million
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 54.5 million
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 54.5 million
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 53.5 million
72.5%
Kalshi 72.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 53.5 million
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 55 million
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55 million
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Above 55.5 million
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55.5 million
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 56.5 million
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56.5 million
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 57 million
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57 million
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 56 million
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56 million
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 50.5 million
  • Above 51.5 million
  • Above 52 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Southwest Airlines seats flown in Q1 2027". Above 50.5 million leads at 98%. Next is Above 51.5 million at 94%. $36K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 19, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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